Tactical votes? The Lib Dem response.

My last post on the College House Hustings included an email I received from Nick Palmer stating that a vote for David Watts and the Lib Dems was, de facto, a vote for Soubry and the Conservatives. I published it verbatim, yet gave a right of reply. I may not come across as the most balanced commentator on such affairs, but Im also a man who hates a skewed fight. I had a brief stint at the BBC where every move during the 2001 election had to be carefully weighted for bias, of which I shall address later. It is stifling, and impossible to write under when your blog is a personal viewpoint.

I am also massively intrigued in how the centre has  risen through exposure, and if this macro phenomenon can be translated to a micro, constituency level. I hand you over to David Watts:

Hi MattThanks for giving me the right to reply to Nick. I think that everyone who heard his assertion last night that my vote will go down compared to last time will treat any figures from Nick with a pretty large pinch of salt. The BBC web site confirms that we need a 13% swing to win the seat. We achieved a 9% swing in the county council elections last year and we have been picking up votes from both parties throughout this campaign. When I got home from the debate last night there was an email waiting for me from a Conservative Party member in Broxtowe who had just resigned his membership as he felt that Vince Cable was the only hope for the UK.

Nick Palmer seems to have picked the 6% figure he suggests out of the air. He’ll know that this is less than the swing we achieved at the County Council elections, and I’m sure that his canvassing tells him what ours tells us, the Lib-Dem vote is growing all the time. As a rule of thumb, the more Labour tell people we can’t win here the more they are afraid that we will win.

What has surprised me in this election is how weak the Tory vote is. Whether it’s Cameron or Anna, someone doesn’t seem to be doing it for the people of Broxtowe, and I think that this election may well be a fight between Nick and I.

Cheers

David
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I received this email during  a visit to the pub with my housemate, and we were both intrigued with a couple of points. I wont assume the role of a psephologist in an analysis of the figures, you have your own  calculators to do that, but more the  last paragraph.

What has surprised me in this election is how weak the Tory vote is. Whether it’s Cameron or Anna, someone doesn’t seem to be doing it for the people of Broxtowe, and I think that this election may well be a fight between Nick and I.

I doubt six months ago I was alone in thinking the fight would be between Soubry’s heavily financed campaign and Palmer’s earned popularity as an effective, focused  incumbent representative, and would have not imagined a two party battle between the Lib Dems and Labour as Watts suggests. I’m going to leave the pros and cons of Palmer v Watts for you to decide with the evidence provided, and instead address the lacklustre performance of Soubry.

I have been accused of a leftish bias in my blog by other commentators,and a half-joking accusation of possessing a misogynistic streak by a certain very close friend. Reading back on my notes of Soubry, I understand this, but also opine the bast form of criticism is constructive. I would love to see clear blue water between her and Palmer, but she has been uncharismatic, shoddy on policy and, ironic for someone with a media background, lacking any killer blows. If someone should know how to form a watertight soundbite, that someone should be someone who once trotted them out on a daily basis.

I hate to think shes given in, so  am more inclined  to imagine her antipathy is strategically affected:let Palmer and Watts divide, and stroll in effectively unopposed.

I invite Anna to a right of reply: state your feelings now or further hold your breath. If she does,I shall publish verbatim, if not, I shall shrug my shoulders and witness a cynical attitude, out of tune with Broxtowe’s tradition of positive, constituency-based representation. I will duly write to Anna.

I’m of to bed. My haircut trauma will be resolved by my next post, as today I misjudged the amount of lighter fluid needed in a brazier, and burnt off my fringe, lashes and brows.  Tarah, the marginally less-hirsute Lord Beestonia.